Large swing is not a foregone conclusion

Dear ,

On Saturday the Northern Territory CLP achieved a 10% two-party preferred swing to oust the sitting Labor Party.

The CLP went from holding 7 seats to perhaps 16, while Labor went from 14 to possibly 5 (with one lost to the Greens and another to an Independent).

First preference swings, in a lot of cases even in the 20s, looked very similar to the by-election swings that Queensland saw in Inala and Ipswich West.

From all accounts the election was fought on the basis of law and order, particularly the mayhem in Alice Springs, which could be partly sheeted-home to the incumbents who had relaxed liquor consumption laws.

Cost of living was also an issue, as were territory finances where the NT government has net debt of $10.8 billion, which would be proportionately like Queensland having net debt of $261.7 billion.

Polling in the NT is sparse to non-existent, which is not surprising seeing it is such a small population. And with electorates with 6,120 voters on average, and only a 50% or so turnout, you’d be hard-pressed to get a statistically representative sample out of any of them.

So it may, or may not, be indicative of a significant silent majority that the size of the result was unexpected with all the pundits guessing a close election and maybe a 5 to 6 per cent swing.

The LNP must be feeling optimistic, Steven Miles, and Anthony Albanese apprehensive.

In 1974, one year before Gough Whitlam went to his second election in three years, and his last, Joh Bjelke Petersen won an unexpected and huge swing in Queensland, often attributed to Whitlam’s incompetent management of Australia.

Could the NT result presage a similar one in Queensland, which would sound the knell for federal Labor next year?

That would be to get well ahead of ourselves.

David Crisafulli can take some comfort from the fact that the Northern Territory has just been returned to conservative rule on the issue of law and order by the descendant of Italian migrants, with a massive swing, but he and his supporters shouldn’t rest just yet.

As the Olympic 100 metre men’s sprint final shows you’ve sometimes got to throw everything at it, even your nose, and you should never assume the other starters aren’t trying.

Consider these factors:

• In Queensland he faces the task of winning 52.5 per cent to perhaps 53.5 per cent of the vote just to fall over the line into government - a swing of 5.6-6.6 per cent.
• Five seats that would normally be LNP in a change of government are held by Independents who would only conditionally back him, whereas the 2 Greens would support Labor.
• Labor is spending huge amounts of money to show voters they care.
• Things are much worse in the NT on all fronts.
• The electoral laws are stacked against the LNP with the union movement capable of spending twice what any political party can (even without the CFMEU).
• Labor’s campaign of personal vilification of Crisafulli is just sitting in the garage warming up.

On top of that the focussed small target campaign has left the LNP winning on a couple of critical issues by a mile but left a whole lot of other cultural issues that fire up key potential support groups untouched. That’s a lot of energy that is being ignored.

I wish Lia Finocchiaro all the best, and I think she’s going to need it. We’d be happy to come up with some bright ideas for her, but the solutions will probably be unconventional.

I also wish David Crisafulli all the best, and no more - he doesn’t need anything diverting him from the finishing line.

Kind regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR