Why are we so fascinated by Taiwan as a defence issue?

Dear ,

Thanks for attending our function with Wing Cdr (ret) Peter Layton on Grand Strategies. It's the first of a series of lunches and other functions we are planning on defence.

At the function there was one question that never got asked because we ran out of time. I hate having to restrict questions, but we do promise to finish by 2:30 so that the lunch does not go on too long.

The question was to the effect of "Why are we so concerned about Taiwan?"

I thought this was a pretty important question, so I asked Peter if he could briefly put down some thoughts.

Peter's response was:

There is uncertainty in many countries about whether China might in the future become an adversary. This uncertainty today is clustered around Taiwan and whether China will use military force to capture the island.  This uncertainty has grown over the last five years as President Xi Jining now often makes statements such as: “we will never promise to give up the use of force, and reserve the option to take all necessary measures." (Quote from the opening speech Communist Party's 20th Party Congress).  

In the last couple of years, there has also been a very marked increase in military manoeuvres around Taiwan involving frequent fighter and bomber aircraft, naval warships and ballistic missile firings. Intelligence agencies assess these manoeuvres as training for a possible invasion. On the other hand, a Chinese invasion seems very improbable given the high diplomatic, military and economic costs that China would suffer.  However, the belief that leaders would always act rationally was damaged with President Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine. In January, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida observed that "Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow." Taiwan, as a word, has come to be a form of shorthand for the uncertainty in many countries about China’s future intentions.

He might have also added that Taiwan is an example of a modern liberal democracy which has used free market principles to achieve extraordinary success. With an average income almost twice that of China's (measured in purchasing power parity) it is a direct rebuke through its success to "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" which must make its continued existence as a separate entity intensely irritating to China.

And that it is the major source of the extremely complicated computer chips the world needs to run the advanced computer systems deployed by their militaries, as well as for AI, giving it immense strategic importance..

Look forward to more stimulating discussions in the New Year.

Regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR.