Without nuclear 100% clean energy is more than 60 yrs away

Summary

The task to make Australia's energy mix 100% clean is significantly more challenging than generally thought, requiring approximately 250% more electricity generation than at present. Not only do we need to replace fossil-fuelled power stations for current electricity consumption, but we need to allow for the 60% of fossil fuels that are used in other sectors from transport to plastics manufacturing.

That will require not just generation capacity, but investment in the transmission network as well as storage.

At the current rate of implementation of wind and solar it would take until 2080 to become 100% clean-energy, and that is without allowing for any population growth. At current rates of growth Australia’s population doubles every 35 or so years, potentially pushing the date much further away.

If Australia is to meet its commitments then it needs to consider the only suitable technology available that can be built quickly near existing network connections, using existing technologies, and which does not require storage. That technology is nuclear.

Analysis

1.       Clean economies will ideally be all-electric. Strategic plans must include clean energy goals, the means for reaching them, and the innovative technologies for replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity (“electrification”). The associated transition will need a policy timeframe reaching to at least 2050.

2.       Analysis shows that around 40% of all fossil fuel is presently consumed in electricity generation. Further analysis leads to an estimate of at least 2.4 times present electricity generation to enable elimination of all fossil fuel. 2019 generation was 954 PJ, which means a minimum target of 2250 PJ to allow for the new electricity demands of electrification. 

3.       If current record growth rates of solar and wind were maintained it would take 65 years for total generation to reach that target. It looks unreasonable to rely on solar and wind for meeting future clean energy needs.

4.       In the same vein it is unreasonable for policy to rely on energy storage to provide large scale stable industrial, commercial and urban energy supplies based on intermittent renewables. Pumped hydro faces similar limitations to expansion as hydroelectric generation. Hydrogen, already a major industrial gas, must be considered as unproven in this application. 

5.       Nuclear energy is the one source of reliable heavy-duty industrial scale clean electricity that could match present fossil fuel-based generation. Nuclear energy already provides 30.5% of the world’s clean electricity.

6.       The all-electric clean energy economy will need a suite of new electrification technologies for production of goods like fertiliser and plastic. This presents a technical challenge at least as great as supplying adequate quantities of clean electricity. A co-ordinated national electrification strategy involving major industries and their supply chains should be undertaken.

7.       In the absence of a binding international agreement on emissions, unilateral emissions reduction by Australia could be economically damaging as well as futile in relation to global climate goals. Australia’s energy policy should remain responsive to the global situation and give priority to protecting Australia’s competitive position in value-adding energy-intensive resource-based industries.

Quote

“Australia should initiate a strategy for encouraging its citizens to feel at least as comfortable with nuclear energy as are the populations of the 31 nations now generating nuclear electricity. In time the necessary legislative changes should follow.”  Dr Tom Biegler

For further information contact Graham Young 0411 104 801, or graham.young@aip.asn.au.