Closed economy doing more harm than good
Re-open now – public intellectuals
A group of public intellectuals from economics, law, politics and think tanks has called on the governments of Australia to open the country up straight away from the COVID-19 lockdown. Signatories include Australia’s best young economist, Professor Gigi Foster, world-leading wellbeing economist Professor Paul Frijters, and former premier of Queensland Campbell Newman. In an open letter to the heads of Australian governments they point out that lockdowns and restrictions are destroying more life than they are saving, and that the risks of opening immediately are orders of magnitude lower than the risks of keeping restrictions in the hope of finding a vaccine. The letter also makes suggestions for better governance arrangements in the case of what would appear to be inevitable future outbreaks. Group convenor Graham Young from the Australian Institute for Progress said now the virus had ceased to be a health emergency it was the time to look forward and ensure a more holistic approach was taken in future.
“It’s hard to estimate the cost in lives from the COVID lockdown, but we may have prevented around 10,000 premature deaths in mostly elderly Australians, at a cost which includes 10,000 shortened due to untreated cancer, 750 to 1500 due to suicide, plus tens of thousands due to wellbeing effects. “In the first instance a lockdown was a rational defensive move in response to an unknown pandemic, but it appears that as more data become available, the avenues of advice to the governments of Australia were too narrow to evolve the best strategies. “The result is a damaged populace and economy which will take years to heal. Our children, grandchildren and greatgrandchildren will hear as much about our scars from this pandemic as we heard about the Great Depression.” Mr Young said that the group’s recommendations for the future included: - transparency in the coding and inputs in the models being used (influential models, like that from Imperial College, were found to be incompetently constructed)
- proper cost benefit analysis of policies to balance indirect and direct loss of life;
- regular daily posting of comprehensive death figures, not just those for the epidemic;
- an expanded, multi-disciplinary advisory group; and
- proper oversight by parliament.
For media comment and to contact signatories, please contact Graham Young 0411 104 801 or graham.young@aip.asn.au.
Signatories to the letter are:
Hon Campbell Newman AO Hon Ian McFarlane Professor Paul Frijters Professor Gigi Foster Professor Peter SwanAO Professor Augusto Zimmerman Professor James Allan Professor Chris Doucouliagos Professor David Feldman Emeritus Professor Gabriel Moens Emeritus Professor Allan Layton Professor Benno Torgler Professor Timothy Olds Associate Professor Terry Gygar Associate Professor William Coleman Associate Professor James Doran Associate Professor Aydogan Ulker Dr Tony Beatton Graham Young Australian Institute for Progress Brian Marlow Australian Taxpayers Alliance Ron Manners AO Mannkal Economic Education Foundation Trevor St Baker AO Stuart Ballantyne Bob Day AO David Leyonhjelm Jacqueline Anderton Peter Hunt AM Tania de Jong AM Dr Guy Campbell Charles Kovess
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