Prediction is very difficult, particularly about the future

Dear ,

Neils Bohr is credited with saying words to the effect that “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future”.

I think he’s wrong, in a similar vein to Mark Twain, who once said, “Giving up smoking is easy, I’ve done it many times,” I’m going to say that prediction is very easy, it’s accurate prediction that is the elusive trick.

But even then it’s not as difficult as you might think. Turns out that if, for instance, you predict the weather tomorrow will be pretty much the same as today, you’ll be right more often than not, something the weather bureau should bear in mind, because you’re often more right than they are.

The same trick tends to work with the stockmarket - just extrapolate from the past and you'll be right more often than not.

All of which is a roundabout way of enticing you to watch this video interview of Ron Manners with our own Damian Coory on ADH TV. The interview starts at 25:56, but the whole show is worth watching, so don’t feel you have to start there.

My forecasting system, extrapolating from that interview, says if you like the interview you’re going to love tonight, and that’s a prediction I’m sticking with.

If you like the interview, and haven’t bought your tickets for tonight, then get on with it and click here. If you like it and already have your tickets, then share the video with someone close to you.

Damian will also be launching the book with Ron tonight.

You might also like to bookmark Damian’s show The Other Side which focuses on issues from a classical liberal and libertarian perspective. As well as being one of our directors Damian is an experienced journalist who also contested the last federal election as the Liberal Democrat candidate for Ryan.

So once again the details are:

Time:     Wednesday 22 May, 6:00 for 6:30 pm

Address: Holy Trinity Anglican Church Hall 141 Brookes Street, Fortitude Valley

Cost:     Between $20 and $35.

Bookings: Click here

There is parking onsite from a driveway on Brookes Street, about 20 metres back from the intersection with Wickham Street, but there is also a lot of on street parking available in this area as well. The hall is quite close to the Fortitude Valley train station, and other public transport, which is another option.

Regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR