COVID restrictions and mandates alienated almost half the Liberal base

In research conducted by the Australian Institute for Progress through its publication On Line Opinion it appears Liberal voters are abandoning the Liberal Party and voting for One Nation because the Liberals’ actions during COVID were seen as a breach of faith.

To download the research click here.

Executive Director Graham Young said that the rise of One Nation has been phenomenal, fast and appears to be almost uniform around Australia. At the same time the Coalition parties are in decline everywhere.

“This is more than the normal rise and fall of parties, there has been a fundamental realignment, but what could have caused something as dramatic and widespread?

“We’ve seen One Nation rise before, but it was geographically bound to Queensland and parts of New South Wales and Western Australia. Now it is in reputedly leftwing states like South Australia and even Victoria.”

Mr Young said that his institute had tested the thesis that the shock to the system had been provided by the policies pursued during COVID.

“If attitudes to these policies were also predictive of changing your vote to One Nation, then we had a potential deep psychological trigger.

“We also tested for attitudes to immigration and the anti-Semitism legislation.”

Mr Young said that most of the movement to One Nation had come from people who were traditional Coalition voters.

“Analysis of qualitative data from 623 respondents showed that these voters who are pro-individual and pro-free enterprise felt betrayed by policies of compulsion which damaged economies, businesses and personal relationships.

“69% of traditional Coalition voters who have now switched to One Nation disagreed with the federal government’s COVID policies. This contrasts with 41% of those who stayed as Liberal voters who approved of the COVID policies.

“92% of traditional One Nation voters disapproved of COVID policies, not surprisingly as One Nation was the one party that opposed lockdowns and mandates.”

Mr Young said this was the emotional key that detached voters from the Liberals. The policy path appears to be immigration.

“While both remaining and defecting Coalition voters think immigration is too high, for the defectors this is an extreme concern with 86% saying it is ‘much too high’. They align closely to traditional One Nation voters where 72% say immigration is ‘much too high’.

“Again, one Nation is the only party seriously addressing this issue.”

Mr Young said that One Nation’s vote was rising steadily until the Bondi Beach massacre and the anti-Semitism legislation when it accelerated.

“The Coalition actually got a small bump at the time of the massacre, presumably a reaction to their strong conduct of anti-Semitism, but that disappeared with the passing of the anti-Semitism legislation with its censorship provisions and their decline even accelerated, while One Nation support's risse quickened.

“From our verbatims the censorship aspects of the bill confirmed that the Coalition hadn’t learned. That it collaborated with the government in passing the bill positioned it as part of an elite establishment.

COVID broke trust. Immigration directed the break. The anti-Semitism legislation completed it.

For further information contact Graham Young on 0411 104 801 or graham.young@aip.asn.au.