Qualitative polling shows a close race

Dear ,

I have just released our first qualitative polling for this Queensland election. You can download it from here, and de-identified data is available to suitable parties on request.

We have been conducting this polling since 2001 using an online panel and it has proven itself as a way of understanding why voters are voting the way they are (compared to quantitative polling which tells you what voters are going to do, but not why).

If you have questions please call me on 0411 104 801 or email me at graham.young@aip.asn.au.

Our general findings are that, as in the 2017 election, electors are unenthusiastic about the
two major parties. While they rate Labor ahead of the LNP on key issues, they harbour an onbalance desire to see LNP elected. This makes both parties’ positions fragile. Labor’s
performance is obviously, despite the numerical differences, not vastly different to the LNP’s
in electors’ minds, and while the LNP has a small final preference advantage, this could easily
evaporate.

Annastacia Palaszczuk has set the high bar for this election so low that it’s possible Deb
Frecklington could get over it with an old-fashioned scissors kick. But there’s a reason no one
uses scissors kicks anymore – they are a high risk, inefficient way of achieving the same thing
as a Fosbury Flop - but can Deb do the Flop?

And how low has Annastacia set the bar? Afterall, her Newspoll approval ratings are
extremely high, so how can she potentially be losing. Our polling suggests her approval is
mostly based on her handling of COVID, and that electors are looking past that to the future
when assessing the next election. They want to know who is best to handle the recovery
which puts the emphasis on economic competence, and here Labor struggles. Not that the
LNP are rated highly, but it is generally a core LNP attribute more than it is Labor’s.

The key points are:

1. COVID impacts on the election, but it is more of an issue for rusted-on Labor and
Greens voters than for LNP, Nationalists, or Others. This is because even Labor voters
are looking past COVID to the economics and jobs recovery that must occur, and this
is where the LNP have a reputational strength.

2. Voter energy in supporting one side or the other, as measured by participation in the
poll, is up significantly for the ALP, LNP and KAP, but down for One Nation and the
Greens since the 2017 election. The increase in KAP versus decrease in ONP probably
reflects the key cross-bench role that the KAP has played for 5 years, plus their
superior stability to One Nation. The drop in the Greens is possibly due to COVID
dampening down concern for Climate Change in favour of economic recovery.

3. Enthusiasm overall is stagnant with voters unimpressed with either government or
opposition, and narrowly inclined to take government from the ALP, but divided as to
whether this should be for a minority LNP or ALP government. This is demonstrated
by:
a. Net approval of the Palaszczuk at -8% (Total Approval 40%/Total Disapproval
49%)
b. Net approval of Frecklington at -21% (TA 25%/TD 46%)
c. Yet Palaszczuk preferred as premier by only 45% to 44%

4. Further complications in what this means are in these figures:
a. Does the government deserve to be re-elected? Net -11% (Agree
40%/Disagree 51%)
b. Does the opposition deserve to become the government? -34% (Agree
24%/Disagree 58%)
c. Who do you expect to win the election? ALP 47%, Hung Parliament 18%, LNP
15%
d. Who would you like to win the election? ALP 41%, Hung Parliament 11%, LNP
44%

5. Despite being inferior to Labor on almost every measure electors would still rather
have the LNP as the government, even if by only a tiny margin. This says that they
have such a low opinion of both parties that they don’t see much real difference
between them in terms of performance.

6. It also meshes with the qual in that while COVID is colouring perceptions of
Palaszczuk’s leadership, voters are looking through it to the future. (Some interesting
parallels here with how Trump’s polling appears to be picking up in the USA as voters
look through COVID to recovery and beyond).

7. When it comes to what is really driving their vote, the bottom-line is economic and
recovering from COVID. In our qual the traditional ALP concerns about health,
education and services in general have declined in incidence markedly in favour of
economic issues, including unemployment. The LNP brand carries more weight in
these areas, so absent a strong attachment to either side, appears at the moment to
be carrying the day.

8. Greens are a major negative for conservative voters, but don’t see any mention of
One Nation or Katter from the left.

9. COVID is about the only thing that gives the ALP definition. After 5 years in
government they don’t stand for anything. Greens see them as too capitalist,
conservatives see them as too Green. Culture war issues. Other hesitations are
unions, public service, coal. They are wedged in the middle.

10. LNP seen as party of vested interests with lacklustre representatives, run by the
backroom and disunited. Not interested in the regions and regional issues.
Frecklington negative. Campbell Newman (but restricted mostly to rusted-on Labor).
Same problem as Labor too – often seen as too right-, or left-wing.

Regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR