Models are a guess as to how the world works, but what does the world say about the models?

Dear ,

Famous American baseball player Yogi Berra is credited with saying that forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future. Or maybe it was Mark Twain, or even Niels Bohr, which demonstrates that everything about forecasting is difficult, even when it is in the past.

Our next guest speaker Dr Kesten Green is an expert about forecasting and he will explore the theme "Sun shines bright: Lifting the lid on manmade climate models". This talk will be based on a peer reviewed paper published by him and Willie Soon.

The date is Tuesday August 19, and will be held in the meeting room on level 7, 1 Eagle Street (Waterfront Place), Brisbane. To book click here. Cost is $40 for AIP members which includes sandwiches and some refreshments.

We're flying Dr Green up from Adelaide for this function. It's an important subject, particularly when the Australian government is spending so much money to avoid climate change. You would hope they'd checked that the model forecasts they are relying on are robust.

Well, we can always hope. If they had done this work, Kesten wouldn't have had to do his own analysis. But they haven't and he has. He and Willie Soon compared the forecasts using models which incorporate CO2 as well as effects from volcanoes and the sun, with other models, including the Null hypothesis.

The results probably won't surprise you, but they are well-worth exploring.

Details are:

Date: Tuesday August 19, 2025 12:00 for 12:30 pm.
Venue: Meeting room, Level 7, 1 Eagle Street (Waterfront Place), Brisbane, Q 4000.
Tickets: General Admission $50, AIP Member $40, Concession $30. All tickets include food and refreshments.
RSVP: Monday August 18 5:00 pm. To book click here.

Hope to see you there.

Regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE FOR PROGRESS