Thoughts on Trump and the AIP

Dear ,

I want to make a few comments about the US elections and how they affect the Australian Institute for Progress.

It’s true the Trump victory will transform the way that politics and policies are perceived, yet the changes will be exaggerated. In fact they already are. And stereotypes will be constructed that bear little resemblance to reality.

It is important that as a think tank that wants to see policy adopted and changed we don’t get swept away in the triumphalism and myth-making and keep as close to the empirical truth as we can.

Despite appearances Trump had a canny campaign that ignored conventional knowledge and ran with electoral reality, and that’s why he succeeded.

But success in this case was so close to failure – losing the popular vote and only winning on the electoral college - that no one can afford to rest on their oars. There is no “conservative” revolution sweeping all before it, but a bare changing of the guard.

If Trump doesn’t perform well-enough, things could easily swing back.

And what Trump represents isn’t exactly clear either. We just know he isn’t Barack and he isn’t Hillary. We don’t necessarily share his values, any more than we share theirs.

Ignoring conventional political wisdom and sticking to his strategy is not the only reason that Trump succeeded. Hillary Clinton did more to help his campaign than she did to help hers. This was as much, if not more, a vote against her, rather than for him.

This is born out in an infographic published on the New York Times site showing the results of an exit poll of 24,537 voters into what drove voter choice.

Click on this link to access it.

Here are some highlights of what it tells us.

Top issues

Immigration: 84% of Trump voters support deportation and 86% the wall.
Terrorism: This was important to 57% of Republicans.
Trade: 65% of those voting Trump think it takes away jobs.
Economy: Clinton won more votes from those who thought the economy was the most important issue, but Trump picked up the majority of those who thought the economy was either fair (55%) or poor (79%). But the economy wasn’t such a strong deciding factor, so that he picked up 24% on those who thought the economy was good this election, compared to last, which means they were basing their decisions on other factors.

Emotional Factors

Change: The strongest factor in Trump’s favour was that he could bring “needed” change. 83% of his voters cited it as a reason for voting for him versus 14% of Clinton’s
Dislike: Dislike of the other candidate was a deciding factor with 51% of Trump voters citing it as a motivator versus 39% of Clinton supporters. His voters hated her more than her voters hated him.
Fear of the future: Trump supporters were more fearful of the future with 78% thinking financial situation is worse today, and 68% thinking the next generation will have it worse.
Experience: If you were worried about track record you voted Clinton. Only 8% for Trump on this basis versus 90% for Clinton. Being an insider is likely to put you offside and outside.

Stats that might surprise you

Race: Despite attacking identity politics, Trump actually improved his position with major racial groups, doing the best with Asians compared to the last election (11%). He didn’t go close to winning any of these groups, but he did do better.
Education: Trump did respectably with educated Americans (45% of college graduates to Clinton’s 49%), but he improved the Republican vote most with those without degrees. 10% up from last election for those with associate degrees or less and 14% amongst whites without college degrees.
Income: Anyone earning over $50,000 a year was marginally more likely to vote Republican than Democrat, but Trump picked up massively between this election and last with those earning under $30K (16%) and $30-$50K (8%). He lost some of the middle income earners being down with those earning $50-$100k (2%) and $100-$150k (9%)
Party affiliation: Trump picked up 5% from those who voted Democrat last election, and 1% from independents while losing 4% of those who voted Republican. A net gain of 2%.
Religion: Despite having a fairly libertine way of life he did better by 4% with Protestants this election versus last, 9% with Catholics, while going backwards 8% with Jews.

Where does the election leave the institute?

This is not an exhaustive list, but some things to think about.

We have already started a substantial project to understand the minor party voter, who can be identified as being similar in a lot of ways to the voters that Trump was able to enlist. Politicians will be thinking more and more about them as a result of this election, and these voters will also feel more emboldened to stake a position. In formulating policies we need to take how this will effect debate into consideration. It means some areas will need to be tended more than others, issues will need to be framed in different ways, and some policies will need a stronger defence than ever.

Our understanding of this vote is also a key asset that we own, and which is valuable to our members, as well as to potential partners and sponsors.

It’s clear that cultural, more than economic, issues drove the vote. It will give an impetus to moves to repeal Section 18c and roll back identity politics. We will continue to take a strong stand on these issues, and Gary Johns’ work in these areas has been impressive for a long time. But there are a lot of other areas where identity politics is poisoning our country, including our education system, and even our criminal justice system. They are now more amenable to reform.

Immigration is another area where we are making a mark. We identified unease with Islamic immigration as an issue twelve months ago, before the mainstream had caught on. There is more to do here to understand this issue.

The international economic environment just got more competitive. Trump is promising to cut US tax rates for corporates and individuals. That has to put pressure on Australia to do the same thing, just as the Reagan revolution did 40 years ago. Trump also puts the argument for protectionism. We have to differentiate between what a country with 320 million can get away with, and what a country of 22 million needs to do. Protectionism might not do much damage there, but would be catastrophic here and needs to be fought.

We are now in a different world with respect to climate change. If the US pushes back, and it will, so will Asia. There is no point exporting Australian carbon emissions, and jobs and industries with them, if that has no impact on global emissions. The science is hard to argue, but impacts are much easier.

Rural and mining issues played a part in Trump’s win, with people from states specialising in those industries by and large supporting him. The Orange by-election gives a foretaste of what is possible in rural areas. There are rural and mining issues that deserve policy work, and now might be a good time to be looking at them.

Employment, and the hollowing out of the middle class, are obvious issues that need to be addressed as well, while resisting the urge for government to mandate solutions, including forcible redistribution of wealth. This is the battleground of fairness, which Labor staked out so effectively in the last term of this government, but in a way which would actually make life much poorer, and therefore less fair, for all of us. Housing affordability, not an issue in the US, but one here, is one area where we are already making a mark, and where the popular “solution” of abolishing negative gearing tax deductions is no solution at all.

Defence and foreign affairs are also changed. Trump was an isolationist, but apparently now wants a navy large enough to fight a war in two oceans. Australia needs to rethink a lot of strategic policy. Whether Trump makes America great again or not, her global dominance will be virtually impossible to sustain as a result of the success of the capitalist revolution in raising so many out of poverty, and the growth in global population. Like it or not, we are in a multi-polar world, but most haven’t woken up to it.

I’m interested in what you think on these issues and our positioning, and what you might be able to do to help.

Moments like these are often turning points in history, and they have to be grasped with both hands.

Regards,

Graham Young
Executive Director