Looks like Andrews stays, but could be different if the Libs were judged worthy of winning

Dear ,

Daniel Andrews is the favourite to win the Victorian election, partly because the Liberals are judged unworthy. However, there is a strong possibility of a protest vote given expectations that Labor will win are so high.

That is the conclusion of a virtual focus group of 180 Victorians run online by On Line Opinion, which is published by the Australian Institute for Progress. Undertaking this sort of detailed public opinion research is something that makes us unique amongst Australian think tanks.

The research also featured in an article in the Australian Financial Review which you can read here.

For this second face-off between Andrews and Guy the electorate's sentiments started-off pretty much where they finished at the last election with Premier Andrews preferred on all measures to Opposition Leader Matthew Guy..

According to polls taken of our participants (who were balanced to take account of their political leanings), 52% thought the Andrews government had done enough to be re-elected, while only 41% disagreed. 73% expect the government to be re-elected.

In contrast only 18% thinks the Opposition deserves to win, compared to 66% that disagrees. Only 6% think the Opposition will be elected, fewer than the 14% who are expecting a hung parliament.

While the premier has his cheer squad, his overall public appeal has never been very high. That contrasts with Mr Guy's approval which was negative at the time of the last election, and is still negative today (-45% with 19% favourable and 64% unfavourable).

Climate change on the left, and debt and the economy on the right, are perennial issues in Australian elections, and tend to reinforce already established voting patterns rather than deciding elections.

However, this election climate change is not really on the ballot as it is a federal issue, and Greens voters are looking at other environmental issues, like old growth forest logging. At the same time the economic issues have moved more to the centre. This should help the Liberals.

The main swing issue appears to be health, particularly hospitals and ambulances. Here neither party has a clear lead.

In an election with a high expectation the government will be returned, but also serious concern with a number of issues, the potential for a protest vote exists (a protest vote being defined as a tactical vote against the party you would actually prefer so as to send them a message, or teach them a lesson).

The protest vote may not manifest if the alternative political parties are not regarded as worthy of voting for.

The polling shows that voters in Victoria are thinking tactically, so protest votes are quite likely, but with the Liberal Party being so poorly regarded, these are more likely to go to minor parties like the Greens and Teals than the official opposition.

It's also possible that individual Liberal candidates whose personal brand is stronger than the party's, may also benefit from this phenomenon. One seat to look for this in particular is Hawthorne, where John Pesutto is the Liberal candidate.

To read the research, please click here to download it.

Regards,

GRAHAM YOUNG
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR