Election update

Dear ,

We released our latest research into the results of the last election. It tends to confirm earlier analysis that it would come down to whoever managed to do best with the non-Greens minor party voters.

The theory that the change to Malcolm Turnbull would allow the coalition to capture votes in the middle while retaining its base on the right was wrong. You can read my analysis of this on On Line Opinion as Textor thesis fails empirical test.

Our exit poll showed the issues that were important to voters with climate change, refugees, health and education being important to Greens and Labor voters, and the economy and debt to Coalition voters. Non-Greens third party voters were also interested in the economy, but also in issues like immigration, Islam, gay marriage, refugees, industry protection and political correctness. I will be doing some further analysis of these voters as they are the most influential in Australia, effectively choosing who will form the government.

Our exit poll report can be downloaded by clicking here.

We also looked at three issues that were said to have a big effect on the election in a separate report. This report concluded that the Mediscare campaign may have actually helped the coalition to a small degree, that superannuation was an issue for a small number of influential coalition supporters rather than the average voter, and that the coalition maintained a lead on the economy.

You can read a media release canvassing those issues by clicking here, and download that report by clicking here.

When I have done the final analysis I will do a members-only briefing on the findings. This could be quite important from the point of view of your own interests as it will give you a view of what concerns these voters and how to frame your arguments in a way that will be most persuasive to them.

If you are not already a member why not join by clicking here.

Look forward to seeing you at the Bolt launch Friday week, or the presentation  by visiting American political analyst, Henry Olsen: "Trump, Brexit and the Forgotten People" on Friday August 19. Bolt is all sold out, but you can book for Olsen by clicking here.

Kind regards,