Qualitative polling released today by the Australian Institute for Progress suggests that an electorate that trusts neither side of politics will deliver a result too close to call in the House of Representatives, but hand power to independents in the Senate.
Executive Director of the AIP, Graham Young, said this might lead to a situation where, if the government were returned, a joint sitting to pass the bills to establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission would go against it.
“Our polling shows an electorate which is polarised around two quite separate sets of concerns. On the one side is the ALP and Greens, who are concerned about climate change, refugees, health and education. On the other is the Coalition supporters who are overwhelmingly concerned about the economy and debt.
“Neither the Greens/ALP, nor the Liberal/Nationals has a majority, so they both need non-Greens minor party preferences.
“These appear to be going to the Coalition, with 70% of our respondents saying they would favour the government rather than the opposition with their preferences. But our sample of this group is far too small to be definitive.
“We get a result of 51% ALP to 49% Coalition, but with a maximum margin of error of 4.51%, it is not statistically significant.
“As a result Labor could get elected on the preferences of One Nation, Liberal Democrat, Australian Liberty Alliance, Family First and Christian Democrat voters.”
Mr Young said the poll did not reflect changes in the campaign in the last two weeks, and the desire of Labor to beat the Greens by running on gay marriage, while softening its stance on refugees, may lose it votes from minor parties.
The Brexit result and left wing commentary on it portraying it as a real risk to world stability may also persuade them to stick with the status quo.
“Labor has also ramped-up its claim that Medicare will be privatised. Medicare is not present as a significant issue with voters.
“On the other side, neither is union power.”
Mr Young said that the only time that union power was raised by respondents was when respondents talked about Mr Shorten’s performance, or their preferred prime minister.
To download the whole report click here.
To download an opinion piece based on the report which will be published in On Line Opinion tomorrow, click here.
For further information contact Graham Young 0411 104 801.