Queensland election last week

This is a snapshot of what was happening at the beginning of this last week of the campaign. Our report, which you can download by clicking here, is “quick and dirty”.

We will do further analysis after the election, but a full analysis is not possible in the time available.

The trends are pretty clear and we draw the following conclusions.

  1. Labor has won the campaign with Annastacia Palaszczuk’s favourability increasing during the election period, and Deb Frecklington’s decreasing.
  2. Frecklington has lost a part of the nationalist and others vote, which is crucial to the LNP doing well in regional Queensland where minor parties and independents win larger shares of the vote than in most of the south east.
  3. The Greens have become more relaxed with Palaszczuk during the campaign.
  4. The ALP is the only party to have managed to get a defined message through, which is that they offer safety and security, and this is demonstrated by their handling of COVID-19.
  5. Electors have more difficulty delineating what they think the LNP stands for. There are a number of issues evident in the concept maps, like the Bradfield Scheme and upgrading the Bruce Highway, but these do not amount to a message.
  6. The Greens are identified with the environment, but their messaging – that they don’t take corporate donations, and that’s why you should vote for them, because as a result they represent you – does not appear to have bitten.