The op-ed below is based on our submission on the Queensland Government’s Roadmap to the Governance, Energy and Finance Committee of the Queensland Parliament. To read the submission, click here.

Queensland’s Energy Roadmap departs radically from the previous government’s strategy by basing itself around engineering rather than ideology and leaving emissions to sort themselves out as coal-fired power stations are eventually closed.

But while it will be more reliable than what was planned, it will still be more expensive than today.

Energy strategists refer to the energy trilemma which is the mostly unattainable goal of simultaneously making electricity affordable, reliable and zero emissions.

Labor ignored the first two thinking that voters would be happy to pay high prices for brownouts and blackouts as the price of saving the planet.

The Crisafulli government is putting people first by emphasising reliability.

So no blackouts, but emissions reductions are likely to be slower, despite the roadmap purportedly ending in NetZero paradise by 2050.

The Roadmap adopts a “no regrets” approach with coal-fired power stations. The best way to understand the implications of this is to reference two state government software disasters – the current Unify one and the Health payroll debacle of 2010.

In both of these cases highly-paid consultants designed systems that failed. Failing is one thing, but the biggest sin was to implement these systems while completely shutting down the legacy systems that, whilst not perfect, still did the job.

This government is not making the same mistake with electricity. Clever consultants have designed the energy transition, and clever consultants are wrong all the time, but it won’t matter so much if we retain the existing power generation system.

However, the cost is not negligible because it means running generation and storage systems side by side each doing much the same tasks – tasks that coal- and gas-fired power stations are capable of doing without backup and storage.

In 2035 Queensland is projected to have total generating capacity of approximately 50 GW to produce the same amount of power as 12 GW of thermal power does today. 15 GW will be large scale wind and solar, another 13 GW will be roof-top solar, which will need 4.3 GW of batteries and 7.6 GW of pumped hydro to back it up, and 12.6 GW of hydrocarbons, just in case.

So four systems, all roughly the same size as what we have now, producing roughly the same amount of total power – a four-fold increase in generation capacity for a zero-fold increase in output!

All of this needs to be paid for.

Then there is the network. The Roadmap estimates $1,035 per household will be saved by reducing the size of the network and therefore the cost, by $26 billion.

That still leaves $60 billion of network to be built which, using the same formula, implies the average household will still have to find an additional $2,587.59 p.a. – almost twice the current average household electricity bill – just for the extra network.

This compounds with the cost of batteries and pumped hydro, both of which have no other purpose than to be supporting actors to the prima donnas of wind and sun.

Which is why the roadmap will have to be revised. Wind and solar multiply costs and make it impossible to run operations like smelters and refineries competitively, no matter how much they are subsidised.

Nuclear has to be in the mix. It doesn’t need the supporting gaggle of storage and networks, and it emits no CO2. 31 countries currently operate or are building nuclear reactors, including countries we consider our peers like the UK and Canada.

It is inconceivable that Australia could have nuclear-powered submarines but no nuclear-powered households. While nuclear might be some way off it’s also likely that the energy transition will be slower than anyone thinks.

The Roadmap assumes 1.36 GW of renewables will be built each year. This is optimistic and has only been achieved once in the history of the state – in 2023. This year no large-scale wind or solar has been added – just batteries.

Most renewables apart from solar are also grappling with sharp increases in cost. There are also long waiting lists for vital elements. Three years for gas turbines, for example.

Then there is the competition for resources with the government’s other priorities like the Olympics and building enough houses for everyone.

Plus when will the storage arrive. Pumped hydro is the only viable form of medium scale storage but none of the four being considered has even passed the feasibility stage.

The report was met with initial sound and fury by a bevy of conservation and social welfare organisations with no expertise in electricity generation. This landed without much effect.

That is good. Electricity is the life-blood of modern life and should not be left to shrill conversation. The public needs to understand options and alternatives as our power system develops.

The Roadmap facilitates that and provides a basis for an incremental and transparent approach to transitioning.