According to our polling, which we have just posted today (access by clicking here) Gladys Berejiklian is in the paradoxical position of being ahead on most indicators, but behind on the two-party preferred vote.
This is because, when asked what they will do this election, apart from the Greens, minor party voters are not allocating the majority of their preferences.
This is a phenomenon across the state and will not necessarily translate into individual seats where it will depend on which minor party candidates are running in each seat, and what the parties do on the ground in each seat.
The deal between the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and Labor Parties will also have an impact in some seats.
We have not conducted a seat by seat analysis.
Berejiklian, or her party, leads Daley in the following areas:
Issues affecting the government are their economic performance, combined with the infrastructure program. There are concerns that the program could be better targeted and executed. The rebuilding of Allianz and ANZ stadiums, and the light rail project, are emblematic of this concern, and they also bring into play competition between the regions and the city.
Issues affecting the opposition are the history of Labor in the state, which is seen to involve corruption and incompetence, and the relatively unknown status of their leader. He’s gained credibility by standing-up to Alan Jones over the stadiums.
Climate change is an issue but affects mostly those who have already decided to vote Labor or Greens. Electricity prices and cost of living also play a part, as does the high level of immigration, which gets much of the blame for the infrastructure crisis in the state.
Best respondent quote about the premier:
“…never gotten stoned at a music festival – was way too serious growing up.”
Best respondent quote about the leader of the opposition:
“Largely untried Mr Daley still needs gum boots to stop the dirt and loose government of past Labor Governments in NSW from infecting him and his party. Short story – I’ve not seen enough of him to trust him as leader of the Government.”
To sum it up, neither is very popular, but the premier is in the lead. This lead may be negated by the mechanics of electioneering, and the lack of enthusiasm for either major party increasing the chance of voters just voting 1.