The takeout from focus group polling is that the Victorian premier is expected to win – which leaves plenty of scope for voters to send a message.
This election was a Seinfeld election – it was more about personalities than plot, and not a lot happened. Before the election cost of living had been a major issue, but it disappears out of our qualitative research
Australians are extremely united in imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, with 89% supporting, and only 6% opposing. There are also high levels of support for military aid with 75% supporting and 12% opposing.
This is another sullen election, even though both sides exhibit high support for their respective candidates. 60% disagree (versus 30% who agree) that the federal government has done enough to be elected, while 40% disagree (versus 41% who agree) that Labor has done enough to be elected.
What is clear is that by the end of the election, COVID-19 and the government's handling of it was the major issue for people changing their votes, as it was for Labor voters overall.
Presented with two parties offering no clear vision of the future, voters opted for certainty by voting for incumbents and voting for border closures.
This was an election that Labor lost. It had too many policies that hurt too many people through higher taxes.
Electors are divided and unenthusiastic this election. They are divided along lines of age, gender, income and nationalism versus cosmopolitanism. Unenthusiastic, because they are split and increasingly looking to minor parties.
The LNP thinks it will hold most seats in Queensland but that confidence could yet be as misplaced as it was during the Super Saturday by-elections.
Gladys Berejiklian is in the paradoxical position of being ahead on most indicators, but behind on the two-party preferred vote.