This is the first set of results from our poll that closed on April 3. Compared to our January poll, Peter Dutton has faded while Anthony Albanese has moved ahead, mostly as a result.

In January I said I’d rather to be in Peter Dutton’s position than Anthony Albanese’s. How much difference three months can make.

To read our full research report, please click here.

Our polling reflects what is being seen in the quantitative polls run by Newspoll and others. While we don’t try to predict election results, there is markedly less willingness to participate by Coalition voters, and no change in the willingness of Labor supporters while there has been a surge in participation by the smaller parties – Greens, Nationalists and independents. If Labor’s two-party preferred position has improved it is because of flows from third parties, not from direct support.

Most voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction. All party supporters have hardened their positions, apart from Independents, who while still believing the country is heading in the wrong direction are less likely to believe that than they were. So the campaigns, or events, have made a difference.

While cost of living is the dominant theme there are many other subthemes. Core issues for conservatives are immigration, cost of living, the energy transition, values and social cohesion, spending, and national identity and values. For Labor and Cosmopolitans core issues are climate change, followed by falls in rates and inflation, Trump, cost of living, including health, and aged care in particular.

Labor and Cosmopolitans also mention “future”, “working” and “doing” which indicates they are generally satisfied with the performance of the Labor government, which is working towards the future. Climate change is of course the key issue as it has been every election since 2007.

The major difference between the issues that people raise when talking about the direction of the country and what they regard as the most important issues facing the country is that “housing” takes a central position. It is equally important to Labor, Liberal, Nationalist, and Greens voters, but less so to Cosmopolitans, who are the group the Teals tend to draw their support from. It is unusual to find an issue with this much resonance with virtually all voters.

While one of the most spectacular backflips of the election has been Peter Dutton’s backdown on bringing Public Servants back into the office, there is no evidence of it being a major issue in our data. It is mentioned by a total of three respondents, all rusted-on Greens or Labor. One was a public servant and two were teachers.

Anthony Albanese’s approval has improved, albeit from -27 to -20, but this has had virtually no effect on his party’s vote. Peter Dutton is still ahead at -19, but this is a deterioration from -14, however he has taken his party’s approval with him with Coalition support going down from -16% to -20%.

Perceptions of Albanese have improved, but he is still perceived as ineffectual, if not weak. The word “strong” is now associated with him, but with a negative bias suggesting he is not strong. When it is used positively it is more likely to be associated with his team. “Competent” also makes an appearance in a “damning with faint praise” way sort of way – “not strong, but competent”. “Trump” is also associated strongly with him, but this is because voters think he could be stronger with Trump, so it is not a positive assessment.

While previously Dutton’s defining characteristic was “strong” and the policy he was associated with “nuclear”, his policy appeal has broadened. Words like “future” are more likely to be associated with him, and “immigration”, however “cost of living” has disappeared, suggesting he’s lost focus on the central issue of this election. The word “Trump” also makes an appearance but is closely associated with Labor or Greens voting intention. While respondents think Albanese is not doing enough to counter Trump, they think Dutton is “Trump-lite”.

Along with the improvement in his personal approval, Anthony Albanese has enjoyed an increase in his standing as preferred prime minister jumping from 45% to 47%. However, this should not be taken so much as an endorsement of him than a rejection of his opponent. With respect to this question the name “Peter Dutton” is closely associated with Albanese, because many Labor, Greens and Cosmopolitan voters think the best reason to vote for him is he is not Peter Dutton.

Other words most closely associated with supporting Albanese are “choice” – most often in the sense of little choice – and “Morrison” – an overhang of the last government. Then a bit further out fall words like “alternative” – as often as not as in “no alternative” – and “decent” – “decent enough” or has “decent policies”.

Most closely associated with Dutton is “worse” as in, we couldn’t do “worse than what we have”. His supporters have a more positive view of him compared to how Albanese’s supporters view Albanese. “Needs” is coupled with a list of policies they think he would execute. “Strong” has a positive bias. It is coupled with “country” and “values” and positioned close to “better leader”. Dutton’s support basis is more strongly attached to him than Albanese’s is to Albanese, but Dutton has more problems in the wider community.

Expectations of an LNP win, high in January at 36% have crashed to 22%. Expectations of Labor winning have increased 3 points to 28%, but expectations of a hung parliament are now at 50%.

When it comes to who voters hope to win the LNP does surprisingly well at 45% with Labor at 38%. But unfortunately for the LNP, the 17% who favour a hung parliament are also more likely to be Greens, or Independents, who will be hoping that hung parliament has a minority Labor government.